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Mathematical Medicine and Biology Advance Access originally published online on November 28, 2006
Mathematical Medicine and Biology 2007 24(2):149-167; doi:10.1093/imammb/dql027
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© The author 2006. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Why is the distribution of HTLV-I carriers geographically biased? An answer through a mathematical epidemic model

Nobuoki Eshima**,1, Minoru Tabata2 and Tadashige Okada3

1 Department of Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University, Oita 879-5593, Japan, 2 Department of Mathematical Sciences, School of Engineering, Osaka Prefecture University, Osaka 599-8531, Japan, 3 Department of Biomathematics, Faculty of Medicine, Oita Medical University, Oita 879-5593, Japan

** E-mail: eshima{at}med.oita-u.ac.jp


  Abstract

Human T-cell leukemia virus type I (HTLV-I) is a retrovirus that causes adult T-cell leukemia, and the distribution of HTLV-I carriers is endemically biased, e.g. in Japan the density of carriers is high in Kyushu and Okinawa. In order to consider population dynamics over long times taking account of an increase and a decrease of a population we propose a continuous-time HTLV-I model. The model describes population dynamics of carrier numbers and that of carrier proportions, and theoretical results about an increase and a decrease of carriers are obtained. The present approach derives an explanation of the biased distribution of carriers in Japan.

Keywords: differential equations; HTLV-I; mathematical epidemic model; population dynamics.

Received on 25 January 2006. Revised on 22 June 2006. Accepted on 7 October 2006.


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