Skip Navigation

Mathematical Medicine and Biology 1999 16(3):261-296; doi:10.1093/imammb/16.3.261
© 1999 by Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by PORCO, T. C.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by PORCO, T. C.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

A mathematical model of the ecology of Lyme disease

TRAVIS C. PORCO

Community Health Epidemiology and Disease Control, 25 Van Ness Avenue, Suite 7lO, San Francisco Department of Public Health San Francisco, California 94102, USA

A mathematical model of enzootic Lyme-disease transmission in a natural focus is presented. This model is based on the life history of the vector tick Ixodes scapularis Say and the primary reservoir host Peromyscus leucopus. Using this model, the threshold condition for the disease to be able to invade a nonenzootic region is determined as a function of the various possible transmission chains operating throughout the year. These expressions show that the transmission chain in which ticks acquire the disease from mice in the fall and transmit it back to mice as nymphs in the spring is the most important chain (contributing approximately 87 % of the elasticity of the threshold for the parameter choices examined). Equilibrium disease levels were examined under the assumption of a constant tick population; these levels were determined as a function of tick and mouse density, the vertical transmission rate, the infectivity of mice, and the survivorship parameters of the ticks and of the tick-host contact rates. Vertical transmission has a disproportionately large effect, since unfed infected larval ticks have two opportunities to feed on mice, rather than only one opportunity (as for a newly infected unfed nymph). Finally, a global sensitivity analysis based on Latin hypercube sampling is performed, in which is shown the importance of quantifying the natural history of infection in mice, and of elucidating the contribution of other hosts for I.scapularis than mice.

Keywords: Lyme disease; Ixodes scapularis; Borrelia burgdorferi; Peromyscus leucopus; mathematical model; sensitivity analysis


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?


This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
 Proc R Soc BHome page
D. Brisson, D. E Dykhuizen, and R. S Ostfeld
Conspicuous impacts of inconspicuous hosts on the Lyme disease epidemic
Proc R Soc B, January 22, 2008; 275(1631): 227 - 235.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.