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Mathematical Medicine and Biology 1997 14(2):85-112; doi:10.1093/imammb/14.2.85
© 1997 by Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
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Validating mathematical models of plant-disease progress in space and time

GARETH HUGHES, NEIL McROBERTS, LAURENCE V. MADDEN and SCOT C. NELSON

Institute of Ecology and Resource Management, University of Edinburgh Edinburgh EH9 3JG, Scotland, UK
Department of Plant Science, Scottish Agricultural College Ayr KA6 5HW, Scotland, UK
Department of Plant Pathology, Ohio Agricultural Research and Development Center Wooster, Ohio 44691-1096, USA
Department of Plant Pathology, University of Hawaii Honolulu, Hawaii 96822, USA

Experimental studies of the dispersal of plant pathogens, and of the resulting patterns of disease, have long been an important component of botanical epidemiology. Many statistical methods have been developed for the description of the observed patterns of disease. More recently, the spatial aspects of plant disease have been incorporated into mathematical models of epidemics. Model validation usually takes the form of a comparison between the model output and real data; but often the comparison is only an informal one. The use of experimental data to develop empirical generalizations of the characteristics of patterns of plant disease provides an opportunity for a more stringent validation of models of the spatial dynamics of plant-disease epidemics

Keywords: botanical epidemiology; experimentation; data analysis; statistical methods; strategic models; validation


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