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Mathematical Medicine and Biology 1997 14(1):1-9; doi:10.1093/imammb/14.1.1
© 1997 by Institute of Mathematics and its Applications
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An analysis of foot-and-mouth-disease epidemics in the UK

D. T. HAYDON {dagger}, M. E. J. WOOLHOUSE and R. P. KITCHING

Department of Zoology, University of Oxford South Parks Road, Oxford OX1, 3PS, UK
Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK

There was a major epidemic of the foot-and-mouth-disease virus among cattle herds in the UK in 1967–68 which showed a very rapid early spread, a much slower later spread, and eventually infected 12% of herds in the core epidemic area. A simple discrete-time version of a susceptible-latent-infectious-removed epidemiological model is used to generate a set of estimates of the transmission rate. This parameter has high values over the first few days, then the values are lower and they subsequently decline. The early high values are consistent with the view that unusual meteorological conditions produced exceptionally good conditions for wind-borne spread of the virus over the first few days. The corresponding basic reproduction number, R0, is estimated as 38.4. Subsequent low values of the transmission rate correspond to a value of R0 of 2.0; this is within the range of estimates made from the observed ratio of secondary to primary outbreaks for 25 other epidemics. Prophylactic control measures, such as vaccination, would have to be extremely effective to prevent epidemics with the higher R0 value.

Keywords: basic reproduction number; control; mathematical model; virus


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N. M. Ferguson, C. A. Donnelly, and R. M. Anderson
The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions
Science, May 11, 2001; 292(5519): 1155 - 1160.
[Abstract] [Full Text]


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