Skip Navigation



Mathematical Medicine and Biology Advance Access published online on June 10, 2009
Mathematical Medicine and Biology, doi:10.1093/imammb/dqp014
This Article
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Add to My Personal Archive
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Right arrowRequest Permissions
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Hoogenveen, R. T.
Right arrow Articles by Boshuizen, H. C.
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Hoogenveen, R. T.
Right arrow Articles by Boshuizen, H. C.
Social Bookmarking
Add to CiteULike   Add to Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us  
What's this?

© The author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications. All rights reserved.

Chronic disease projections in heterogeneous ageing populations: approximating multi-state models of joint distributions by modelling marginal distributions

Rudolf T. Hoogenveen, Pieter H. M. van Baal{dagger} and Hendriek C. Boshuizen

National Institute of Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands

{dagger} Email: pieter.van.baal{at}rivm.nl

Received on October 31, 2008. Revised on January 29, 2009. Accepted on May 13, 2009.

To quantify the effects of changes in risk factors for chronic diseases on morbidity and mortality, Markov-type multi-state models are used. However, with multiple risk factors and many diseases relating to these risk factors, these models contain a large number of states. In this paper, we present an alternative modelling methodology implemented in the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment chronic disease model. This model includes multiple states based on risk factor levels and disease stages but only keeps track of the marginal probability values. Starting from the multi-state model, differential equations are derived that describe the change of the marginal distribution for each risk factor class and disease stage, taking into account population heterogeneity and competing mortality risks. The model is illustrated by presenting results of a scenario affecting disease incidence by altering the risk factor distribution of the population. To show the strength of the approximating model, we compare its results to those of the multi-state Markov model.

Keywords: multi-state model; Markov model; chronic disease; life table; risk factors; heterogeneity; competing risks


Add to CiteULike CiteULike   Add to Connotea Connotea   Add to Del.icio.us Del.icio.us    What's this?




Disclaimer: Please note that abstracts for content published before 1996 were created through digital scanning and may therefore not exactly replicate the text of the original print issues. All efforts have been made to ensure accuracy, but the Publisher will not be held responsible for any remaining inaccuracies. If you require any further clarification, please contact our Customer Services Department.